The euro, the pound, and other risk assets have significantly weakened against the US dollar, and there were objective reasons for this.

News that Trump is dissatisfied with Iran's latest proposal to resolve the conflict led to a return of demand for the US dollar. Iran's last proposal involved postponing discussions on the Iranian nuclear program until the end of the war. Although Trump viewed it skeptically, he did not outright reject Tehran's proposal. The absence of data from the US also played a certain role in strengthening the dollar.

Today is expected to be relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic events. In the first half of the day, the market is unlikely to receive significant fundamental data from the eurozone that could provide a clear direction for the euro. Specifically, the expected unemployment data in Spain, while an important indicator of the health of the Spanish economy, is unlikely to have a significant impact on overall European trends. In the context of a general information vacuum, local indicators such as Spanish unemployment are likely to remain overshadowed by more global factors affecting the euro's exchange rate. The lack of major economic releases in the first half of the day may lead to some volatility caused by technical factors or speculative positions. Nevertheless, without new drivers, significant price movements are unlikely, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to exhibit restrained dynamics.

As for the pound, there are no significant macroeconomic data from the UK in the first half of the day that could set a new direction for the national currency. This creates preconditions for maintaining the trends that emerged the day before. The pressure observed on the British pound since yesterday may continue to influence its exchange rate. The absence of positive news or data capable of supporting growth exacerbates uncertainty and makes the currency vulnerable to negative factors related to the situation in the Middle East.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD pair

Buying on a breakout of the level 1.1730 could lead to a rise in the euro to the area of 1.1755 and 1.1791;

Selling on a breakout of the level 1.1700 could lead to a drop in the euro to the area of 1.1673 and 1.1645;

For the GBP/USD pair

Buying on a breakout of the level 1.3530 could lead to a rise in the pound to the area of 1.3553 and 1.3575;

Selling on a breakout of the level 1.3505 could lead to a drop in the pound to the area of 1.3480 and 1.3445;

For the USD/JPY pair

Buying on a breakout of the level 159.40 could lead to a rise in the dollar to the area of 159.60 and 159.85;

Selling on a breakout of the level 159.10 could lead to a sell-off of the dollar to the area of 158.80 and 158.57;

Mean Reversion Strategy:

For the EUR/USD pair

I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1727 upon a return below this level;

I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1703 upon a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3540 upon a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3513 upon a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7197 upon a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.7171 upon a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3649 upon a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3619 upon a return to this level;